Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Tuberculosis in Makassar, South Sulawesi Indonesia

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health challenge, with Indonesia ranking among the top three countries with the highest TB burden in 2019. Information about the distribution of the tuberculosis (TB) incidence rate over time and space is necessary for the effective control of the disease. This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal trends of tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates in Makassar, South Sulawesi. Methods: This Ecological study utilized aggregated TB cases data in Makassar City, from the Indonesian National Tuberculosis Information System (SITB). between January-December 2022 (3977 patients). Kulldorff’s space-time scan statistic, implemented using SaTScan, was applied to identify clusters of TB. In addition, Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, conducted in GeoDa, was utilized to further characterize tuberculosis hotspots and cold spots. Results: The greatest Tuberculosis incidence rate was recorded in middle west area in Makassar during 2022. Kulldorf’s space-time scan statistic identified the most probable cluster in 60 villages in the mid-western region of Makassar from July to December 2022, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.50 (p-value <0.001) and secondary cluster (16 villages) was identified in the southern region of Makassar, with a RR of 1.41 (p = 0.0015). Some high-trend TB statistically significant clusters were found in the same places. Conclusions: The TB cluster was located at Middle west Makassar. Prioritizing these clusters for resource allocation could lead to more successful control and prevention of TB. Future studies should examine socioeconomic and environmental determinants to better explain TB clustering and guide comprehensive interventions.

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