Seasonal wave dynamics and model validation at Galesong Beach, south Sulawesi: Evaluating the accuracy of wave prediction

Abstract

Understanding wave dynamics is vital for effective coastal management, maritime navigation, and disaster risk planning.This study evaluates the performance of four widely used wave prediction models the shore protection manual (SPM), coastal engineering manual (CEM), Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider (SMB), and Pierson-Moskowitz (PM) in forecasting wave height and period at Galesong Beach, south Sulawesi.The results reveal strong seasonal dependencies, with the highest wave energy occurring during the December -February monsoon period.Statistical validation using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), bias, and coefficient of determination (R) shows that the SPM and CEM models offer the most accurate wave height predictions, with RMSE values of 1.44 m and 1.61 m, respectively.In contrast, the SMB and PM models display larger errors, particularly in wave period estimation, limiting their suitability for this coastal setting.These findings emphasize the importance of selecting wave prediction models based on regional climatic conditions.The study highlights the need for seasonal calibration and the use of high-resolution datasets to enhance forecasting performance, providing a scientific basis for improved coastal planning and hazard mitigation.

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