# THE APPLICATION OF GUMBEL COPULA TO ESTIMATE VALUE AT RISK WITH BACKTESTING IN TELECOMMUNICATION STOCK
> Najiha A.

URL kanonis: https://discover.unhas.ac.id/publications/pub_scopus_85216941388
Jurnal / Konferensi: Barekeng
Tahun terbit: 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol17iss1pp0245-0252
ISSN: 19787227
Kuartil SJR: Q4
Citations: 3

## Authors
- Najiha A.

## Abstract
The Value at Risk (VaR) method refers to a statistical risk measurement tool used to determine the maximum loss of an investment, while the distribution that must be met is the normal distribution. This is not in line with the actual situation, because the distribution of the return value is found to be not normally distributed but depends on market conditions that occurred at that time, thus invalidating the VaR estimate and resulting in greater portfolio risk. Therefore, in this study, the estimation of risk value will be carried out using the Gumbel Copula method which can model the dependency structure between stocks and is flexible enough to model financial return data from https://finance.yahoo.com/. The parameter estimates produced by the Gumbel Copula method are then used to calculate the VaR at 90%, and 99% confidence levels. The resulting VaR values ​​are 0,076 and 0.231. To test the feasibility of the VaR model, backtesting was carried out and concluded that the VaR value obtained was valid and suitable for use in the risk assessment of PT. XL Axiata Tbk and PT. Telkomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.

## Keywords
- Gumbel distribution
- Copula (linguistics)
- Value at risk
- Econometrics
- Economics
- Statistics
- Portfolio
- Extreme value theory
- Mathematics
- Actuarial science
- Risk management
- Financial economics
- Finance

---
Sumber: Discover Unhas — RIMS Universitas Hasanuddin.
Saat mengutip, gunakan DOI bila tersedia atau URL kanonis di atas.