Land use change projection in Bonehau Watershed 2031

Abstract

Through land use, humans have modified over 83% of the terrestrial surface. This research was aimed to identify land-use changes in 2001, 2008 dan 2016, and projected land-use changes in 2031 using Markov modelling in Bonehau Watershed. The study used Markov modelling to projected land-use change in 2031. The result indicates there were eight classes of land use in Bonehau watershed with accurate of interpretation 86.5 %. The classes consist of primary forest, secondary forest, brushwood, agriculture, rice fields, settlement, open land, and water areas. Validation of land use in 2016 using Markov modelling has an accuracy of 85,49 %. This is compatible with the percentage of equality area between actual and projected in 2016, 85.29 %. The result of projection land-use changes in 2031 showed the highest increasing areas occurred in the settlement class, 166.15 % or 320.54 hectares out of settlement area in 2016, whereas the highest decreasing areas occurred in the primary forest, 17.23 % or 7.397.05 hectare out of primary forest area in 2016. Projection of land-use change in 2031 showed all classes with natural characteristic was decreasing and all classes influenced by human activities were increasing.

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