# Estimating Claim Occurrences in Non Life Insurance by Using Single Decrement Environment Method
> Rangkuti A.

URL kanonis: https://discover.unhas.ac.id/publications/pub_scopus_85074989721
Jurnal / Konferensi: Journal of Physics Conference Series
Tahun terbit: 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1341/9/092015
ISSN: 17426588
Citations: 1

## Authors
- Rangkuti A.

## Abstract
Nowadays people are increasingly aware of the importance of financial protection. In insurance companies, there are often a large number of unexpected claims. The purpose of this study is to forecast probability of claim occurrences (conditional failure rate) at certain time interval using existing historical data. To estimate the conditional failure rate, we used single decrement environment. This approach considers only one factor in the calculation process that is the time of the claim. The assumptions used for the time between two claims are exponentially and linearly distributed. The results show that both of linear and exponential assumptions, the probability of claim occurrence in time interval depend on the number of claims and the number of people who had an accident at the interval of observation. Besides that, special for exponential, it depends on the ratio between time interval and the number of days at the interval of observation.

## Keywords
- Interval (graph theory)
- Exponential function
- Conditional probability
- Econometrics
- Failure rate
- Exponential distribution
- Conditional expectation
- Statistics
- Mathematics
- Life insurance
- Actuarial science
- Exponential growth
- Economics
- Mathematical analysis
- Combinatorics

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Sumber: Discover Unhas — RIMS Universitas Hasanuddin.
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