Long-Term Projection of Renewable Energy Potential in South Sulawesi using Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) Software

Abstract

In 2023, South Sulawesi Province recorded electricity consumption of 7,131.5 GWh across six customer sectors, while production reached 7,430 GWh. Rising electricity demand, combined with a provincial renewable energy potential of approximately 16,847 MW, underscored the need for long-term electricity planning. This study applied the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) to project regional electricity demand and supply through 2050. Four scenarios were assessed: Business-as-Usual (BaU), National Energy Policy (NEP), Government Energy Conservation (GEC), and Green Energy (GE), using 2023 as the base year and Government Regulation No. 40/2025 as the policy reference. Under BaU, a two-phase growth model aligned with National General Plan for Electricity (NGPE) 2025–2060 projected electricity demand to reach 83.0 TWh by 2050. The NEP scenario reduced demand to 63.9 TWh through energy intensity reduction measures. The GEC scenario matched NEP's demand projection, though supply fell short from approximately 2044 onward. The GE scenario produced the lowest demand of 37.5 TWh and also achieved the highest renewable energy share of 50.1% in the supply mix by 2050 among scenarios that fully met demand, driven mainly by hydropower, solar PV, and geothermal. These findings indicated that the GE scenario best supported Indonesia's renewable energy targets and long-term electricity sustainability in South Sulawesi.

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