Peri-urban coastal morphological transformation and emerging slum risk: a comparative assessment of spatial vulnerability and resilience

Abstract

In peri-urban coastal settlements, slum conditions may emerge following prolonged processes of unplanned morphological transformation, increasing density, spatial fragmentation, land-use conversion, and inadequate infrastructure. However, conventional slum assessments tend to focus on observable socio-economic and physical conditions after vulnerability has become apparent, while the preceding morphological processes remain insufficiently examined as early spatial signals. This study examines whether morphological transformation can serve as an early spatial warning signal of emerging slum vulnerability in peri-urban coastal settlements. A mixed-method spatial approach integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS), land-cover change analysis, Space Syntax, urban morphology, and Multi-Criteria Analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Weighted Linear Combination (AHP–WLC) was employed. Six morphological indicators—connectivity, building density, spatial fragmentation, coastal alignment, land-use transformation, and environmental capacity—were integrated into the Morphological Slum Risk Index (MSRI), while the Spatial Resilience Index (SRI) was used to assess adaptive capacity. The results reveal contrasting morphological trajectories between the two settlements. Aeng Batu-Batu maintains a relatively stable traditional coastal morphology, characterized by lower spatial fragmentation, limited land-use transformation, and greater environmental and spatial resilience, resulting in a Very Low MSRI (0.187) and a High SRI (0.83). In contrast, Biringkassi has undergone substantial morphological transformation toward a hybrid coastal–sprawl pattern, characterized by higher building density, greater spatial fragmentation, intensive land-use conversion, and reduced environmental capacity, resulting in a High MSRI (0.732) and a Low SRI (0.37). The approximately fourfold difference in MSRI between the settlements demonstrates substantial variation in morphology-related vulnerability despite their shared peri-urban coastal context. The findings indicate that morphological transformation can provide early spatial signals of emerging slum vulnerability before conventional slum conditions become visibly established. The proposed MSRI–SRI framework provides a transferable approach for integrating morphological transformation, spatial vulnerability, and resilience into early-stage slum-risk assessment and resilience-oriented planning in rapidly urbanizing coastal settlements.

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