Governance-embedded structural diagnostics for assessing sustainability transition readiness in coastal special economic zones

Abstract

Coastal Special Economic Zones (CSEZs) face growing environmental challenges associated with climate change, ecosystem degradation, resource pressures, and rapid industrial expansion. Despite increasing efforts to promote sustainability transitions, decision-makers often lack practical approaches for assessing whether governance, ecological, economic, and technological conditions are structurally prepared to support long-term transformation. This study develops a governance-embedded structural diagnostic framework for assessing sustainability transition readiness in CSEZs. Using a theory-informed synthesis of sustainability-transition and system-dynamics literature, the study develops a causal loop diagram (CLD) consisting of 13 variables and 15 causal links, followed by topology-based network diagnostics, feedback-orientation analysis, and governance-based scenario exploration. Governance is conceptualized as an endogenous component embedded within the feedback architecture rather than as an external enabling condition. Two topology-based diagnostic indicators, the Governance Structural Influence Ratio (GSIR) and Structural Synergy Potential Index (SPI), are introduced to characterize governance embeddedness and feedback orientation, respectively. The reconstructed CLD contains one reinforcing and two balancing feedback loops, yielding a GSIR of 0.33 and an SPI of 0.33. Reinvestment Capacity exhibits the highest structural connectivity, indicating its central position in linking economic, governance, energy, and industrial pathways. Scenario exploration further indicates that the Integrated Transition configuration represents the most transition-supportive qualitative structural arrangement. The framework provides an intermediate structural diagnostic layer for examining governance embeddedness, cross-sector feedback configuration, and transition readiness before empirical calibration and dynamic simulation.

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