Model and scenario of sustainable cut rose farming development in Batu City: A dynamic system approach for Indonesia's cut rose center

Abstract

A B S T R A C T Cut rose farmers in Batu City, East Java Province, Indonesia, are currently facing various challenges that have impacted the sustainability of cut rose farming in the city. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model and scenarios for the sustainability of cut rose farming in the city. The analysis method employed was a dynamic system based on the economy-social-technology & innovation-ecology (ESTIE) submodel. The study found that the sustainability model for cut rose farming in the city consists of two types: causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams. The research findings also suggested that the expected scenario for the sustainability of cut rose farming in the city was optimistic. The scenario was the best option for developing sustainable cut-rose farming. The scenario passed the validation test and promises an increase in profits of IDR 378,289,000, an increase in the number of farmers by 55,735 people, an increase in agricultural tools and machinery of 205,090 units, and an increase in total rose production of 124,159,000 stalks. The findings were believed to strengthen the sustainability of rose cut farming in the city significantly. Based on the findings, it is recommended to increase the selling price of cut roses, increase the number of rose farmers, increase the percentage of farmer groups applying agricultural equipment and machinery technology, and expand the area of rose cultivation as the best alternative strategy for improving the sustainability of rose cut farming in Batu City.

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