# Predictive accuracy of caries risk assessment: A systematic review
> Hasyim R.

URL kanonis: https://discover.unhas.ac.id/publications/pub_scopus_105050266185
Jurnal / Konferensi: Journal of Dentistry
Tahun terbit: 2027
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdent.2026.107016
ISSN: 03005712
Kuartil SJR: Q1
Citations: 0

## Authors
- Hasyim R.

## Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the predictive accuracy of single-factor, multi-factor, and machine learning-based caries risk assessment (CRA) methods in predicting caries risk among children and adults, updating the 2015 review. DATA: The review was reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020, supplemented by relevant items adapted for prognostic accuracy reviews. Paired sensitivity and specificity data were extracted, and 2 × 2 contingency tables were reconstructed where necessary. SOURCE: PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Scopus were searched from February 2015 to July 2025. STUDY SELECTION: Studies evaluating CRA methods with a minimum 1-year follow-up and sufficient data to reconstruct a 2 × 2 table were included. Of the 7332 records identified, 30 studies met the inclusion criteria; 16 contributed to the meta-analysis. RESULTS: The full Cariogram in children demonstrated pooled sensitivity 72.10% and specificity 69.96%. Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) yielded a sensitivity of 67.65% and a specificity of 58.96% with substantial heterogeneity. The American Academy of Paediatric Dentistry (AAPD) CRA showed high sensitivity (95.56%) but very low specificity (5.12%), suggesting it may be more suitable for initial screening than for definitive risk stratification. Past caries experience demonstrated moderate predictive accuracy. Machine learning showed potential but lacked sufficient data for pooling. CONCLUSIONS: CRA methods demonstrate moderate predictive accuracy, with substantial variability across populations, tools, and study designs. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: CRA methods should be used alongside clinical judgement. Further prospective validation and incorporation of objective biomarkers may improve future caries risk prediction.

## Keywords
- Medicine
- Dentistry
- Risk assessment
- MEDLINE
- Risk factor
- Systematic review
- Epidemiology
- Intensive care medicine
- Predictive value of tests
- Oral health

---
Sumber: Discover Unhas — RIMS Universitas Hasanuddin.
Saat mengutip, gunakan DOI bila tersedia atau URL kanonis di atas.