Incidence and Predictors of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Following Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery, with an incidence ranging from 10% to 65%, and is associated with increased risks of stroke, prolonged hospitalization, and mortality. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the incidence and identify predictors of POAF in adults undergoing cardiac procedures. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, we searched PubMed, Europe PMC, and SAGE databases for English-language studies published between January 2020 and June 2025. Eligible studies included observational and experimental designs involving adults (>18 years) undergoing cardiac surgery. Two reviewers independently screened titles/abstracts, assessed full texts, extracted data, and evaluated quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and Joanna Briggs Institute tools. From 6598 initial records, 52 studies (32 prospective cohorts, 17 retrospective cohorts, and 3 cross-sectional) were included, encompassing diverse geographies, and surgical types (e.g., coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery). POAF incidence varied from 7.9% to 60.9%, highest in combined procedures (40%-50%), and valve surgery (30%-40%). Consistent predictors included advanced age (odds ratio 1.05-1.10/year), left atrial enlargement, valve surgery, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, renal dysfunction), prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass, inflammation (e.g. C-reactive protein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio), and oxidative stress markers (e.g. NOX2). Novel biomarkers like MR-proANP and gene panels showed potential. POAF remains multifactorial and burdensome; standardized monitoring and integrated risk models could enhance prediction and prevention, warranting further validation in multicenter trials.

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