Revisiting the Role of Public Opinion in Foreign Policy: The Case of Brunei in the South China Sea

Abstract

Although claiming a rectangular Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that encompasses the Louisa Reef and maritime features in the Spratly Islands, Brunei has not taken a stance that reflects decisiveness in safeguarding its claims in the South China Sea. For decades, scholars have argued that economic factors fuel Brunei's silence in the disputed waters. However, as a means of seeking an alternative interpretation, this study argues for the relevance of the nexus between public opinion and foreign policy and perceives that Brunei's stance can also be understood through the lens of how the Brunei people perceive the South China Sea dispute. Utilizing published data from the State of Southeast Asia 2025 survey report (with slight comparisons with the 2024 survey), the qualitative analysis concludes the following: 1) Socio-demographic factors and conceptual schemes/belief systems as influencing variables in shaping the Brunei public's foreign policy attitudes, by acknowledging the multi-dimensional factors associated to the South China Sea dispute; and 2) the top-down model to explain the interaction between public opinion and foreign policies, with Brunei respondents adopting a similar stance to the Sultanate through the cautiousness express over the disputed waters, expressed ongoing trust towards regional mechanisms, as well as the favorable perception towards China from the lens of influential economic powerhouse, and strategic significance in Southeast Asia.

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