Multidecadal Wind-Wave Variability in Makassar Strait along ALKI 2: ERA-Interim Based Assessment Supports IKN Maritime Resilience

Abstract

This study investigates the multidecadal variability of wave and wind dynamics along the Indonesian ALKI 2 shipping lane in the Makassar Strait using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 39 years (1979–2017). Seven observation points (K1–K7) were analyzed from northern Kalimantan to the southern strait. Key parameters include Significant Wave Height (SWH), Mean Wave Period (MWP), and 10-meter wind speed. The results reveal significant spatial and seasonal variability influenced by the monsoon system and local topographic effects. The northern points exhibit higher wave energy during DJF (December–February), while the southern points are more active in JJA (June–August), consistent with the prevailing seasonal winds. Trend analysis shows a weak but statistically significant increase in MWP at certain locations. These insights are critical for the development of maritime infrastructure and risk mitigation strategies associated with Indonesia’s new capital city (IKN Nusantara), located near this important shipping corridor.

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