# System Dynamics Modeling of Renewable Energy Production in Indonesia to Meet National Energy Policy (KEN) Targets
> Azmi K.U.

URL kanonis: https://discover.unhas.ac.id/publications/pub_scopus_105031710551
Jurnal / Konferensi: Proceedings International Conference on Smart Green Technology in Electrical and Information Systems Icsgteis
Tahun terbit: 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSGTEIS68532.2025.11284395
ISSN: 28313992
Citations: 0

## Authors
- Azmi K.U.

## Abstract
Indonesia has established ambitious goals to increase the share of renewable energy in its national energy mix, targeting at least 23% by 2025 and 31% by 2050, as outlined in the National Energy Policy (KEN). However, recent assessments indicate significant shortcomings in the progress toward these targets. As of 2023, the share of renewable energy has reached only 13.29%, well below the interim target of 17.9% for the same year, despite being just two years away from the 2025 milestone. This study employs a System Dynamics approach to model the dynamics of Indonesia's renewable energy production, and evaluates the feasibility of achieving KEN targets under current and projected conditions. Using Vensim PLE, a simulation model was developed based on historical energy supply data from the past decade, encompassing key renewable energy sources, such as bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind, and other renewables. Two scenarios were analyzed: Business-as-Usual (BaU) and KEN Targets. The simulation results show that under the BaU scenario, the renewable energy share will only reach approximately 14.7% in 2025 and 21.7% in 2050, falling significantly short of national targets. A gap analysis revealed that geothermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy consistently underperform relative to the targets, while bioenergy exceeds them. To address these disparities, this study proposes a reallocation of KEN targets based on observed trends, emphasizing increased support for bioenergy and solar energy while deprioritizing sources with limited development potential.

## Keywords
- Renewable energy
- Environmental economics
- System dynamics
- Energy policy
- Energy supply
- Production (economics)
- Energy engineering
- Energy (signal processing)
- Energy development
- Natural resource economics
- Bioenergy
- Feed-in tariff
- Scenario analysis
- Energy system
- Renewable energy credit
- Renewable resource
- Environmental impact of the energy industry
- Intermittent energy source
- Interim
- Engineering
- Environmental science
- Energy source
- Environmental resource management
- Energy accounting
- Efficient energy use
- Economics
- Business
- Primary energy
- Solar energy
- Energy conservation

---
Sumber: Discover Unhas — RIMS Universitas Hasanuddin.
Saat mengutip, gunakan DOI bila tersedia atau URL kanonis di atas.