Predicting Water Discharge Using Model The Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System in the Mallusetasi Watershed

Abstract

Abstract The frequent occurrence of discharge in the watershed makes the Mallusetasi watershed a high contributor to the number of natural disasters in Barru Regency. This causes the need for research related to the discharge in the Mallusetasi watershed. This study aims to determine the magnitude of the Mallusetasi Watershed Flow Regime Coefficient (KRA) and determine the level of validation of the HEC-HMS model in predicting water discharge in the Mallusetasi Watershed in 2022. Factors that affect water discharge in the Year 2022 analysis in the Mallusetasi watershed are land cover, slope, soil type which includes soil hydrology group and soil texture, rainfall, and geology. Based on the results of analysis and simulation in the Year 2022 model, rainfall and soil type are the most influential factors on water discharge in the Mallusetasi watershed. The predicted maximum flow discharge produced by the model is 26.4 m 3 /s in December with a volume of 985,34 mm. The calibration results of the HEC-HMS model obtained an NSE value of 0,468 and an R2 value of 0,682. After the validation process, the NSE value obtained is 0,373 and R2 with a value of 0,672. The KRA value obtained from the results of the analysis carried out has the highest value of 1140 which is in Sub-basin 3 with a very high classification.

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