Open Pit Coal Mine Failure Model Based on Statistical Data

Abstract

Abstract Slope stability is paramount in open-pit safety and mine operations, where unexpected failures can have significant consequences. This necessitates a deeper understanding of specific slope behaviour to guide geotechnical professionals in taking preventive measures. The primary objective of the study is to create an empirical model of the recorded failures to enhance failure prediction accuracy using the inverse velocity method and to define optimal alarm parameters, ensuring timely warnings before slope failures occur. This study investigates 14 slope failure events categorized into original in-situ slope failure, subsoil failure, and disposal failure. The failures are monitored using three GroundProbe Slope Stability Radar (SSR) monitoring systems that facilitate real-time data delivery with submillimetre accuracy, operated at an open-pit coal mine in South Kalimantan. A total of 15 parameters of different slope behaviours obtained from failure back analysis have been tested using the Anderson-Darling fitting test where the mean values are used as an empirical model of each failure category. The model demonstrates that the parameters of each failure category have different fitting test values that best fit with either normal or lognormal distribution types. The model was also compared to the actual failure data by analysing the distribution and variance of the data. The result indicates that most of the failure parameters are effectively represented by the empirical model proposed in this study, with certain parameters are also observed to be not closely aligned with the model.

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