Neutrality in regional organizations: the case of Laos’ Chairmanships in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

Abstract

Studies have concluded that Laos is a ‘satellite’ or ‘vassal’ state of China due to its increasing dependence on China’s financial investments over the past years. Therefore, the expectation is that, during Laos’ Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chairmanships in 2016 and 2024, Laos would take a stance similar to Cambodia's in 2012, slightly siding with China on the South China Sea dispute. However, such expectations never came to fruition, as Laos surprisingly leaned more towards the ASEAN Way by remaining neutral in its role. Bridging social psychology’s uncertainty-identity theory can offer unique interpretations of Laos’ foreign policy, revealing ideational facets uncommon in the existing literature. This explanatory empirical case study examines Laos’ ASEAN chairmanships over the past 10 years and bridges the uncertainty-identity theory to identity, self-categorization, and entitativity. The study found that: (1) A sense of uncertainty in identity surfaced due to Laos’ concerns over the discourse of China’s ‘predatory’ lending practices in the region; (2) the deliberate self-categorization to abide by the ASEAN Way by associating with the regional grouping’s prototypical attributes and displaying neutrality; and (3) ASEAN as a high entitativity regional grouping, motivating Laos to align further with the regional grouping’s norms and goals.

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