Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Mangrove Ecosystems in Luwuk Timur, Banggai Regency, Indonesia Using RAP-MFRAST and Monte Carlo Validation

Abstract

Mangrove ecosystems are ecologically, socially, and economically vital for maintaining coastal stability. However, severe mangrove destruction has occurred in the Luwuk Timur coastal area, Banggai Regency, due to land-use changes for aquaculture ponds, settlements, and illegal logging. This study assessed the sustainability status and ecological condition of mangroves using the Rapid Appraisal for Mangrove Forest Sustainability (RAP-MFRAST) method combined with Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis. Primary data were collected through direct observation and purposive-sampling interviews, while secondary data were obtained from government agencies and literature reviews. Four sustainability dimensions—ecological, economic, social, and institutional—were evaluated using 29 attributes. Results show that the ecological dimension falls into the moderately sustainable category (index 71.29), and the economic (50.46) and institutional (51.86) dimensions are also moderate, but the social dimension is less sustainable (47.37). The relatively high ecological index reflects strong biophysical support, including mangrove cover and biodiversity, indicating that the East Luwuk mangrove ecosystem retains good ecological capacity. In contrast, lower scores for social and economic dimensions reveal major challenges such as limited community participation, low environmental awareness, financial constraints, and weak institutional support. Model reliability was confirmed by Monte Carlo validation, yielding stress levels below 0.15 and R² values above 0.94 for each dimension. Overall, degradation of social and institutional quality is the main barrier to effective mangrove management. Adaptive solutions require multiparty involvement, stronger institutional capacity, and greater community engagement in ecosystem-based conservation. These findings provide important evidence for developing policies to support sustainable coastal resource management.

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