Modeling of extreme rainfall recurrence time by using point process models

Abstract

Background and Objective: Period of extreme rainfall recurrence in certain location becomes a very interesting thing to be studied. In agriculture, uncertain emergence affects many things. The calendar of cropping pattern is closely related to the prediction of recurrence time of extreme rainfall. This study aimed to construct the mathematical model to find the time of extreme rainfall recurrence through point process modeling. Methodology: The assumption used in this study was the waiting time until the subsequent occurrence of subsequent rain follows the inverse Gaussian and the log normal distribution. To estimate the parameters model, the moment method was used. Results: The time of recurrence of subsequent extreme rainfall can be determined by calculating the length of waiting time since the last extreme rain event. Conclusion: The expected waiting time until the subsequent occurrence of the next rain, does not depends on the time difference since the appearance of the extreme last rainfall.

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