Model development of risk assessment of risk-taking relationship with integrated approach

Abstract

Abstract Each organization or company must always be dealing with risk. The decision-makers strive to be able to avoid the impact of such risks. Those generated risks may affect the achievement of the objectives, therefore risk management is needed. Risk management is a solution to avoid or to minimize the occurrence of the risk. Risk management consists of several steps, one of them is risk assessment. An appropriate risk assessment would support the achievement of the objectives. In this study, a risk assessment model is developed with PLTSa Kota Surabaya as a (research) object, which was selected because there were still constraints that affect the energy produced and waste volume used as fuel in this PLTSa . This study aims to develop risk assessment models integrated with the Delphi method, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, and Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation, then implementing these models in real cases and proposing risk mitigation steps by considering the relationship of the risks. The Delphi method was used to identify risks, FCM was used to identify the relationship among risks and the relationship between risks with the objectives of PLTSa, and FSE was used to assess the level of risks to find risks with the critical category. Delphi method identified 15 risks as a result and reached the consensus based on statistical analysis, FCM generated positive value of the relationship among all of the identified risks and negative value of the relationship between identified risks with the objectives of PLTSa. Meanwhile, FSE method obtained six types of critical risk, which were the machine brake all of a sudden (RC = 3,082), the blower did not work (RC = 3,041), congestion in fuel flow (RC = 2,954), clogged filter (RC = 2.915), lack of machine maintenance knowledge by the operator (RC = 2,872), and the energy produced had not maximum. (RC = 2.828). Those six types of risk used a scenario to run the FCM simulation and meet the dynamic behavior of the risk relationship value. The mitigation proposals are to perform maintenance activities programmatically, to improve the management system related to human resources, and to do the fuel examination according to the standard.

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