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Kidney disease with metabolic syndrome risk factor using dynamic model approach in Indonesia
Kartika M.
ACM International Conference Proceeding Series
Abstract
The aim of this study to estimate occurrence of chronic kidney disease with metabolic syndrome disease in the next 22 years and to find out the most appropriate strategy to press increase of the occurrence of chronic kidney disease in Indonesia. The study was a cross sectional research used Basic Health Research of Indonesia data in 2013. The samples were respondents aged from 25 years old and above. The data were variables of number of chronic kidney disease patients, obesity prevalence, diabetes mellitus (OM), hypertension, dyslipidemia, sweet, salty, and fatty food or drink consumption, fiber consumption, physical activities, and smoking habit. The data were analyzed using dynamic system Powersim program. The dynamic model was started by developed Causal loop and Flowchart Diagram model of chronic kidney disease occurrence. The number of chronic kidney disease incidents in the population ≥25 years old for 22 years (2013-2035) in Indonesia was estimated 2116 persons (6.07) with multiple of 20.15 times. The chronic kidney disease incidents decreased in the population aged ≥25 years old for 22 years (2013-2035) in Indonesia if metabolic syndrome influenced chronic kidney disease had controlled on simulation model VII, which controlled on obesity and hypertension prevalence about 730 persons. Most suitable strategy on reducing chronic kidney disease incidents was on simulation model VII by reduced obesity 8.3% and hypertension 15.8% which suppressed the increment rate of chronic kidney disease patients by 13.2 times from initial condition without control.