Gauging Contemporary Maritime Tensions in the North Natuna Seas: Deciphering China’s Maritime Diplomatic Strategies

Abstract

In an attempt to solidify its claims in the Southern-most part of the South China Sea, China has enforced the navigation of its coast guards and survey ships intensively between 2019 and 2021. This study intends to provide an in-depth investigation to the characteristics of the maritime diplomatic event that took place between China and Indonesia in the North Natuna Seas, using Le Mière’s five-points of framework in assessing maritime diplomatic events. It is concluded that: Chinese Coast Guards and survey ships are non-kinetic, as China is solidifying its claims in the North Natuna Seas without insinuating conflict; The asymmetrical power balance of Indonesia and China has led to aggressive maneuvers of China in the North Natuna Seas despite the presence of strict warnings from the Indonesian Navy and BAKAMLA; the sustainment and pre-emption of the policies indicate that the policies have been planned in advance with certain goals that need to be achieved; and explicitness of the message sent allows little possibilities for miscommunication, leading to a non-flexible political demand from China.

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