Estimation Risk Exposure to Nickel and Cobalt in Air Using a Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Exposure to airborne nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co) poses significant non-carcinogenic health risks, particularly with chronic inhalation. This study quantifies the health risks associated with Ni and Co exposure using a Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate variability and uncertainty in exposure assessment. Air samples were analyzed to determine metal concentrations, and risk characterization was performed through the calculation of Hazard Quotient (HQ) and Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values based on United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines. The probabilistic analysis revealed that the mean HQ and THQ values for both Ni and Co exceeded the safe threshold (HQ > 1, THQ > 1), indicating a high probability of health risks across the population, especially among adults. Sensitivity analyses identified inhalation rate, exposure duration, and exposure frequency as the most influential factors, while body weight, average exposure time, and reference concentration (RfC) served as mitigating variables. The results highlight a significant potential for non-carcinogenic effects from Ni and Co inhalation, emphasizing the need for stringent air quality management and targeted public health interventions. This study demonstrates the importance of applying probabilistic risk assessment models to better understand and manage environmental health hazards.

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