Dynamic Model of Coastal Economic Development Within the Framework of the Blue Economy in South Sulawesi

Abstract

South Sulawesi is a strategic coastal province with vast marine resources. However, excessive exploitation and unsustainable development have put pressure on coastal ecosystems. This study aims to simulate the dynamics of coastal economic development within the framework of the blue economy in South Sulawesi. The method used is a quantitative approach, with a causal (explanatory) research design. The study was conducted in South Sulawesi, focusing on coastal areas. Data collection methods included desktop studies and field observations. The data analysis methods used were descriptive analysis and dynamic system analysis. The results of the analysis show that a 17-20% annual increase in the fisheries sector budget can increase capture and aquaculture fisheries production by 14.71% per year, which ultimately increases the GRDP and PAD of South Sulawesi. However, on the other hand, the increase in the fisheries sector budget, followed by an increase in fisheries production, puts high pressure on fish resources and the environment, resulting in a 28.17% decline in fish stocks and a drastic decline in environmental quality from an index of 79.0 to an index of 73.0, or a decline of approximately 6.0 indices. Therefore, the increase in the fisheries sector budget must be balanced with an increase in the environmental sector budget to maintain coastal environmental quality and prevent it from deteriorating

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