Development of the Total Ozone Column Model Prediction based on Stratospheric Zonal Wind and Temperature over the Maritime Equatorial Region

Abstract

As one of the constituent gases which plays an important role in protecting the earth from UV radiation, the characteristics of ozone important to be studied and even modeled. This study mainly concerned to the temporal analysis of the ozone concentration which is total ozone column (TOZ) in the atmosphere by using zonal wind and temperature in the stratospheric layer. Spectral techniques applying to find out the predominant peak oscillation and investigate anomalous at each layer that varies from 100–10 hPa layers. The result showed that TOZ anomaly over the maritime equatorial region has a similar pattern with the zonal wind which related to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) phenomena and stratospheric temperature anomaly, especially at 30 hPa layer. Then, we developed a model prediction for TOZ by using multiple linear regression and validate for 7 lead ahead using statistical approach; Pearson correlation, RMSE, and Euclidean distance. Moreover, our developed model then compared with the persistence model. Finally, we found a significant result with statistical correlation, r = 0.92 at lead 1.

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