Demand Estimation for Non-Working Trips: Forecasting Passengers regarding the New Open of Railway Line Maros-Barru

Abstract

Abstract This study aims to identify the demand estimation of passengers regarding the operational railway of Maros-Barru line. The new railway is expected to attract passengers using public transport from origin to destination. The existing condition of Maros-Barru majority used private vehicle as the choice and minibus with fragmented line. The new construction railway provided by the government services the passengers through Maros-Barru. The demand for the railway plays an important role in describing the potential passengers of each region. The non-working trips with flexible time for the trip are the main focus of this study. The potential passengers using the origin-destination (O/D) matrix are used. The analysis uses the growth factor of the population and forecasts demand according to OD data. The high trip based on OD estimation result showed that Pangkep was at the first position followed by Maros and ended with Barru. This result indicates that Pangkep has a high demand according to the forecasting passenger which is located in the middle regency instead of Maros and Barru that close to the Capital area. The high trip occurred for the total not only for the Origin trip but also Destination trip. Hence, the population growth of the district on Pangkep is the most compared to other districts in other regions.

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